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Risk Identification
Map technical, human, operational, governance and planetary protection risk drivers.
SRI
Space Risk
Institute
Institute
Space risk, resilience, governance and foresight
MERRF White Paper
The Mars Exploration Risk and Readiness Framework, created by the Space Risk Institute, turns Mars ambition into evidence-based readiness, assurance and decision support.
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Readiness Assessment
Evaluate whether claims are supported by tests, analogue evidence, lunar operations and review.
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Assurance Evidence
Translate assumptions into evidence, confidence gaps, residual risk and accountable decisions.
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Responsible Mars
Connect mission feasibility with ethical legitimacy, public trust and sustainable exploration.
MERRF defines Mars readiness as an evidence-based assurance condition, not a symbolic milestone.
Executive summary
MERRF was created by the Space Risk Institute to structure the evaluation of Mars readiness across systems, people, institutions and governance arrangements.
Why MERRF exists
Mars readiness cannot be reduced to hardware maturity, launch capability or successful lunar operations. The Moon is a valuable testbed, but it does not reproduce the operational separation of Earth and Mars, long-duration isolation, limited rescue capacity and autonomy demands that define sustained human Mars missions.
MERRF provides a structured way to ask what must be proven before a mission, architecture or institutional arrangement can be considered ready for Mars-relevant conditions.
Core proposition
Sustained human exploration of Mars requires a dedicated risk and assurance architecture that integrates engineering reliability, human performance, crew autonomy, legal accountability, ethical legitimacy and adaptive governance.
The framework supports decision-makers by distinguishing aspirational readiness from demonstrated readiness and by showing where uncertainty, weak evidence or residual risk remain material.
Eight readiness domains
The domains are interdependent: weakness in one area can cascade into technical, operational, institutional or societal failure.
Technical Readiness
Mission-critical systems, degradation, repairability, redundancy and failure containment.
Operational Readiness
Procedures, logistics, emergency response, maintenance and constrained Earth support.
Human Readiness
Crew health, cognition, cohesion, workload, training and medical autonomy.
AI and Autonomy
Safe, transparent, secure and governed autonomous systems with human override.
Governance Readiness
Decision rights, accountability, ethics, legal responsibility and assurance.
Planetary Protection
Contamination control, scientific integrity, biological containment and site stewardship.
Societal Readiness
Public legitimacy, political continuity, stakeholder trust, education and social license.
Resilience Readiness
The capacity to anticipate, absorb, adapt to and recover from disruption.
Methodology
MERRF moves stakeholders from broad risk awareness to explicit readiness claims, graded evidence, residual risk and decision pathways.
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Define the claim
State precisely what is being claimed, such as habitat support, medical autonomy or crew authority under communication delay.
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Map the context
Connect the claim to mission phase, crew size, distance from Earth, logistics limits and dependency chains.
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Identify drivers
Document technical, human, operational, governance, planetary protection and societal risk drivers alongside controls.
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Grade evidence
Use tests, simulations, lunar operations, analogues, audits and expert review to assess applicability to Mars.
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Assess confidence
Identify uncertainty, weak evidence, untested assumptions and residual risk that may affect readiness claims.
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Support decisions
Translate findings into risk acceptance, mitigation, additional testing or no-go recommendations.
Mars readiness must be demonstrated through evidence, not inferred from lunar progress or technological optimism.
Applications
MERRF can be used as a lightweight executive assessment or as the basis for a deeper assurance programme across Moon-to-Mars architectures.
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Mission assurance
Evaluate readiness claims for mission systems, operations, crew autonomy and critical dependencies.
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Policy and governance
Clarify accountability, decision rights, ethics, public legitimacy and planetary protection obligations.
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Investment review
Distinguish genuine readiness evidence from aspirational narratives in space programmes and ventures.
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Analogue design
Design analogue studies that test Mars-relevant assumptions rather than generic exploration scenarios.